Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 31 2020 - 00Z Tue Apr 07 2020

...Heavy rain potential late this week into next week...

Relaxing pressure gradient will ease trades over the next couple
of days with precipitable water values ranging from 1.2 to 1.6
inches, favoring windward/mauka showers. By late Wed into Thu,
troughing south of the Aleutians will dig southward between
165-170W to near 30N by 12Z Sun. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET
all cluster close together and near the 00Z GEFS mean/ECMWF
ensemble mean. With a strong consensus in the latest guidance for
the upper low to lie west of the 165W, this would increase the
chance of drawing deeper tropical moisture across the region late
this week into next week as a cold front approaches but perhaps
stalls just to the northeast of the area (GFS closer to Kauai than
the ECMWF). With successive upper ridges cresting atop the upper
low, it appears that it may become cut off from the westerlies for
several days.


Fracasso