Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Wed Apr 01 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 02 2020 - 00Z Thu Apr 09 2020

...Heavy rain potential next week...

Troughing/forming upper low south of the Aleutians will dig along
or just east of 170W southward to near 33N by 12Z Sat. The 00Z
guidance differs on how quickly to lift the upper low (-4 sigma
standardized height anomaly at 500mb) to the northeast. The 00Z
ECMWF/Canadian were still a bit quicker to bring the upper low
northeastward compared to the GFS (and even slower UKMET). Frontal
system associated with the upper low will stall to the northwest
of the area, allowing deeper tropical moisture to lift across at
least part of the region (Kauai/Oahu) along a convergence zone.
With precipitable water values perhaps +2 to +3 sigma for a
couple/few days, some locally heavy rain will be possible.
Ensemble consensus takes the front across the state around next
Wednesday, just a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF.


Fracasso