Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Fri May 01 2020

Valid 00Z Sat May 02 2020 - 00Z Sat May 09 2020

Strong upper ridging and moderate to breezy trades will prevail
over the islands through the weekend as a couple surface high
pressure centers slip eastward along 35N. With below normal
precipitable water values and subsidence aloft, showers will be
limited. The pattern is expected to change markedly next week as a
trough digs southward along 160W to 150W through the
mid-latitudes. This may drive a cold front into the region around
Thursday. Rainfall may focus in a narrow convergent zone across
some of the islands but moisture may only increase modestly to
around 1.25 inches. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean were a bit stronger
aloft than the ECMWF/Canadian, but this may be reasonable given
the amplified pattern across the Pacific late next week. Front
could stall over the area next Friday but still not tap deeper
tropical moisture.

Fracasso