Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Sat May 02 2020

Valid 00Z Sun May 03 2020 - 00Z Sun May 10 2020

Strong upper ridging and moderate to breezy trades will continue
over the islands through the weekend as a couple surface high
pressure centers slip eastward along 35N. With below normal
precipitable water values and subsidence aloft, showers will be
limited but still could be locally modest. The pattern is expected
to change markedly next week as a trough digs southward along 160W
to 150W through the mid-latitudes. This will likely drive a cold
front into the region late Wed or early Thu. Rainfall may focus in
a narrow convergent zone across some of the islands but
precipitable water values may only increase modestly to around
1.25-1.45 inches. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean were a bit stronger aloft
than the ECMWF/Canadian, but this may be reasonable given the
amplified pattern across the Pacific late next week. Front could
stall over the area next Fri-Sat with some scattered showers in
windward areas with some local enhancement before slowly
dissipating.

Fracasso