Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Sun May 03 2020

Valid 00Z Mon May 04 2020 - 00Z Mon May 11 2020

Cold front to the north of the area will sink a bit farther south
before washing away on Monday as surface high pressure meanders to
the northeast of the region. Moderate to breezy trades will
subside early in the week. With below normal precipitable water
values and subsidence aloft, showers will be limited but still
could be locally modest. An upper trough is forecast to dig
southward along 160W to 150W through the mid-latitudes which will
likely drive a cold front into the region late Wed or early Thu.
Rainfall may focus in a narrow convergent zone across some of the
islands but precipitable water values may only increase modestly
to around 1.25-1.45 inches. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean remained a bit
stronger aloft than the ECMWF/Canadian. Front could stall over the
area Fri-Sat with some scattered showers in windward areas. Front
will likely dissipate by the end of the period. A weak upper low
may form west of the region next Sun as Hawai'i may be in between
weak ridging to the NW and SE. Trades will slacken a bit before
the front approaches, then increase again later in the period as a
surface high slides eastward to the north of the region.

Fracasso