Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Mon May 04 2020

Valid 00Z Tue May 05 2020 - 00Z Tue May 12 2020

Modest trades will slacken a bit as surface high pressure splits
to the northeast of the region. With near normal precipitable
water values showers could be locally modest but otherwise light
in nature for the next couple of days as leftover moisture lingers
in the area. An upper trough is forecast to dig southward along
160W to 150W through the mid-latitudes which will drive a cold
front into the region around Thu. Lighter trades on Wed will
increase a bit Fri. Rainfall may focus in a narrow convergent zone
across some of the islands but precipitable water values may only
increase slightly to around 1.25 inches. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean
remained a bit stronger aloft and slower to raise heights later in
the week than the ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET. Front could stall over the
area Fri-Sat with some enhanced scattered showers in windward
areas. Front will likely dissipate by the end of the period but
the models diverge on where that may be. For now, prefer to side
closer to the ECMWF as it has had a better handle on the Pacific
pattern overall lately. A weak upper low may form west of the
region next Sun with little affect. Typical trade pattern may
again resume by next Mon with high pressure to the NNW of the
area.

Fracasso