Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 212 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Valid 00Z Mon May 11 2020 - 00Z Mon May 18 2020 Models/ensembles show good consensus that a mid/upper-level ridge should remain in place across Hawaii and much of the central Pacific through the next week. Moderate trades are expected initially as surface high pressure slides eastward north of the state, keeping typical windward/mauka showers associated with a trade wind pattern in place. A weakening upper-level low embedded within the ridge may bring a brief increase in shower activity across Mon-Tue, before drier air works into the state later in the week. Model guidance shows general agreement on this feature as well as a relatively modest increase in PW values across Hawaii in the vicinity of the upper low. Trades should weaken by midweek as high pressure moves south across Hawaii/weakens. As a stronger surface high develops north of the state once again by next weekend, trades should increase once again. Ensemble means show good consensus (ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS) that the upper ridge in the vicinity of Hawaii should strengthen by next weekend. Any embedded weakness in the ridge could serve to enhance shower activity in the vicinity - although confidence in such finer-scale details is low at this time. Ryan