Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 205 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Valid 00Z Thu May 14 2020 - 00Z Thu May 21 2020 Models/ensembles show good consensus that a mid/upper-level ridge should remain in place across Hawaii and much of the Central Pacific through the next week. Weakening trades are expected through Thursday as surface high pressure north of the state weakens and slides southward, relaxing the surface pressure gradient across the region. As a stronger surface high develops north of the state once again by the weekend, trades should return. Ensemble means continue to show good consensus (ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS) that the upper ridge in the vicinity of Hawaii should strengthen over the weekend, with means showing the center of the upper ridge anchored directly over Hawaii by Sun-Mon. This, along with a somewhat drier air mass, should serve to keep convection relatively suppressed by that time, with only isolated showers sticking to favored windward locations. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show consensus that the trailing end of a decaying frontal boundary should approach Hawaii from the north by early next week, with somewhat deeper moisture pooled along the boundary perhaps bringing a slight increase in shower activity. With the upper-level ridge remaining overhead, however, and the associated subsidence, would expect that would serve to limit any significant increase in shower activity associated with the boundary. Ryan