Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Valid 00Z Sat May 23 2020 - 00Z Sat May 30 2020 Today's guidance agrees well with the idea of a trade wind pattern that shows some moderate changes over the course of the period while shower activity remains in the lighter half of the spectrum. An east-west surface ridge north of the state will support moderate trades late this week into the start of the weekend. This ridge will weaken and drift closer to the main islands through the weekend into early next week, leading to lighter trades especially over the northwestern islands. As a result sea/land breezes could have some influence on shower activity during this time frame. By mid-late week there is some spread with surface details north of the islands (00Z ECMWF pushing a front farther south than consensus, but still keeping it north of the state) but one way or another guidance expects high pressure to rebuild and provide somewhat stronger trades. Models/means expect precipitable water values to remain near to below climatology most of the period while an upper ridge settles close to the state next week. This combination will likely keep showers fairly light. Rausch