Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Valid 00Z Wed May 27 2020 - 00Z Wed Jun 03 2020

At the start of the period a weak surface ridge near the
northwestern islands will lead to fairly light winds and some
sea/land breeze influence for showers.  High pressure rebuilding
to the north of the state will bring an extended period of at
least moderate trades and generally windward focus for showers
from Wednesday onward.  Fairly strong ridging aloft will likely
help to keep rainfall amounts on the light side over most areas. 
There is still spread in the guidance for an area of higher
precipitable water values that may reach the state from the
north/northeast after Sunday.  The ECMWF and GEFS mean have
stabilized over the past day and the ECMWF mean has trended slower
to join them.  The GFS has been persistent with a slower arrival
of this moisture and the 00Z run is about a day slower than the
aforementioned solutions.  Would recommend a GFS/ECMWF compromise
as guidance has trended to some aspects of the upper ridge
forecast by GFS runs over recent days.  Thus far guidance is
suggesting this moisture would have only a modest effect on
rainfall totals.

Rausch