Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 29 2020 - 00Z Mon Jul 06 2020

Expect persistence of a trade wind pattern with some fluctuation
in wind speeds over the course of the period.  The greater
percentage of showers should focus over windward/mountain areas
but leeward areas may see activity at times depending on the
degree of sea breeze influence.  Most rainfall should be light,
though modest enhancement may be possible around Friday into the
weekend as guidance maintains the potential for a pocket of higher
precipitable water values to cross the state from east to west.

Models and means are consistent and agreeable in showing a
weakness aloft/surface trough crossing the area Sunday-Monday with
an associated decrease in trades, followed by an upper ridge
moving into the area from the northeast and stronger trades
Tuesday-Wednesday with a tightening surface pressure gradient.  By
later in the week the GFS has trended toward the ongoing majority
cluster that has been holding onto somewhat higher heights aloft
than what the GFS had been forecasting--though there is agreement
on some weakening of the ridge.  Then by next weekend guidance
suggests upper ridging may rebuild a bit north of the state. 
Consensus evolution shows a modest weakening of the trades
Thursday-Friday followed a return to stronger trades during the
weekend.   

Rausch