Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Valid 00Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 00Z Tue Jul 07 2020 Trades of varying strength will continue through the period, supporting primary focus for showers over windward/mountain locations. However some localized sea breeze influence will be possible especially when trades are on the lighter side. Most rainfall during the period should be fairly light. There has been a signal for an area of higher precipitable water values to pass through the area within the Friday-Sunday period but latest guidance has diverged on this. Expect trades to strengthen Tuesday-Wednesday after the departure of a surface trough/upper weakness, and then return to somewhat lighter speeds Thursday-Friday. During this cycle of trades an upper ridge will build in from the east/northeast and then reach just west/north of the main islands by around the end of the week. Trades should gradually strengthen once again during the weekend and early next week as eastern Pacific high pressure expands. Most guidance keeps the area under a modest weakness aloft Saturday-Monday. As for the area of moisture that has been forecast to cross the state around Friday-Sunday, the 00Z ECMWF and to some degree the 12Z ECMWF mean maintain reasonable continuity but the GFS and GEFS mean have trended noticeably drier than yesterday. An intermediate solution appears best considering established continuity and the 12Z ECMWF mean recommending somewhat less moisture than the new ECMWF run. Rausch