Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 03 2020 - 00Z Fri Jul 10 2020

From Friday into the weekend expect trades to be in the light to
moderate range as a weak surface trough crosses the state. 
Guidance continues to agree with the general idea of an
accompanying band of higher precipitable water values (PWATs) and
some increase in rainfall.  However solutions are stubborn in
avoiding a consensus over the degree and northward extent of the
greater moisture--the GFS/GEFS mean currently showing higher PWATs
and farther northward extent versus the ECMWF/ECMWF mean--favoring
an average within this range for a specific forecast.  During this
time frame the background flow may be sufficiently weak to allow
for some sea breeze influence on showers.  As this moisture
departs the model/ensemble consensus shows a strengthening of the
trades from Sunday into the first part of next week as Pacific
high pressure extends its influence farther southward.  Winds
should stabilize at moderate to brisk levels through
Wednesday-Thursday.  The strengthening trades will likely return
shower focus more to windward/mauka areas though with some rain
straying to leeward locations at times.  Latest models/means
suggest the next band of relatively greater moisture could reach
the state around next Thursday.

Rausch