Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 26 2020 - 00Z Sun Aug 02 2020

...Hurricane Douglas forecast to pass over or dangerously close to
Hawaii this weekend...

The most significant aspect of the forecast for Hawaii continues
to be what is currently Hurricane Douglas, moving westward across
the central Pacific towards the Hawaiian islands.  The latest
suite of deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to
show some variance on the track of Douglas, although there is good
consensus that Douglas will pass over or at least dangerously
close to Hawaii this weekend. Even small deviations on the exact
track, either farther north or south, could have significant
effects on expected impacts for specific locations/islands.
Regardless though, there is an increasing chance that strong and
gusty winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could impact
portions of Hawaii beginning as early as Saturday night. Several
inches of rainfall are possible, with flooding and flash flooding
a threat. Hurricane Watches are currently in effect from the Big
Island to Oahu, with flash flood watches hoisted for all of the
major islands. Refer to the latest guidance from the National
Hurricane Center for the most up to date forecast information
regarding Douglas.

Douglas should continue to gradually weaken as it moves away from
Hawaii by the early to middle part of next week. In the wake of
the system, expect a drier air mass across the state and the
resumption of a more typical trade wind pattern into next weekend.

Santorelli