Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 03 2020 - 00Z Mon Aug 10 2020

Models and ensembles agree that high pressure to the north of the
state will support fairly strong trades for most of the period,
while showers focus primarily over windward/mountain areas.  There
is a leading area of moisture on Tuesday that most guidance keeps
south of the Big Island while the 00Z GEFS mean is the most
extreme with its northward extent of the moisture.  Then guidance
is similar in principle for an area of enhanced moisture and a
weak upper level feature that should push across the region during
mid-late week and produce some enhancement to rainfall.  Solutions
vary for precipitable water values in this moisture shield with
the 00Z GFS highest and 00Z ECMWF lowest.  The 00Z GEFS mean leans
more toward the GFS and the 12Z ECMWF mean toward the ECMWF.  A
guidance average would be reasonable at this point.  Consensus
shows a gradual drier trend next weekend but with precipitable
water values likely to remain above normal.

Rausch