Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 04 2020 - 00Z Tue Aug 11 2020

Guidance maintains good continuity for the overall forecast
pattern through the period.  High pressure well north of the state
will support moderate to brisk trades and a windward/mountain
shower focus.  There are still differences in the precise
northward extent of an area of enhanced moisture passing to the
south of the Big Island on Tuesday.  An average of latest guidance
would have fairly minimal effect on the Big Island.  During the
latter half of the week the models/means are consistent in showing
an area of greater moisture (precipitable water values above 1.50
inches) passing over the state while an upper weakness crosses the
region around Thursday.  The combination of added moisture and the
upper feature should increase rainfall to some degree during the
latter half of the week.  It will be during this time when there
will be a better chance for some showers to stray into leeward
locations.  Consensus shows a gradual drier trend during the
weekend.  There are hints of another upper feature passing through
around next Monday.  However at that time most solutions aside
from the 00Z ECMWF keep trending a little lower with moisture so
any rebound in showers would likely be modest.

Rausch