Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 07 2020 - 00Z Mon Sep 14 2020

The operational models and ensemble means maintain good agreement
and consistency for the seven-day forecast that now extends
through next weekend.  Expect a persistent trade pattern with some
variability in wind speeds and generally light windward-focused
showers.  During the first part of the week trades should trend
somewhat lighter as high pressure retreats to the Northeast
Pacific.  Meanwhile a pocket of relatively higher moisture
(precipitable water values up to 1.50 inches or so) will pass over
the state, providing some modest enhancement of rainfall.  Once
this moisture departs the precipitable water values will decline
to below normal values of around 1.25 inches or lower for the rest
of the period.  The 00Z ECMWF provides the only slight point of
disagreement, suggesting the Big Island could get brushed by the
far northern periphery of another area of moisture passing to the
south around Friday.  The 00Z GFS and GEFS/12Z ECMWF means all
keep this moisture more suppressed.  Trades will likely trend
stronger during the latter half of the week as high pressure to
the north rebuilds closer to the islands, and then weaken somewhat
during the weekend in response to a similar trend with the surface
high.

Rausch