Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 23 2020 - 00Z Wed Sep 30 2020

Upper ridging will remain over the region through the weekend,
focused to the north and northeast of the area. With deeper
moisture confined to near the ITCZ, expect modest trades (a bit
breezier on Thursday as surface high pressure moves by to the
north) and light to moderate windward/mauka showers. A trough will
dig north of the area by early next week but its evolution remains
uncertain as the 00Z ECMWF was much more sharp and slower than the
GFS/Canadian (closing off an upper low to the NNW of the area next
Tue). Prefer an intermediate solution near the ensemble means.
Tropical Storm Lowell is forecast to move westward this week into
next week, but should remain east of 150W by next Tue. The 00Z
ECMWF was again faster with this system compared to the ensembles
while the GFS was on the slower side.

Fracasso