Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 07 2020 - 00Z Wed Oct 14 2020

A fairly quiet and dry weather pattern is expected across Hawaii
and adjacent marine areas into this weekend. A break in the
subtropical ridge east of Hawai'i should allow for trades to be
weak through Wednesday.  The subtropical ridge shifts from the
western Pacific to the north of the archipelago allowing a return
of moderate, but mainly dry trade winds Thursday and Friday. 
Remnants of Marie are expected to miss the 50th state to the
northeast and weaken the trades once more on Saturday before they
re-freshen from Sunday onward. 

By next Monday night/Tuesday, the guidance shows a bit of spread
with an upper trough near the International Dateline which would
impact weather in and near the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument as a cold front moves into the region.  The 12z ECMWF/00z
GEFS means support a solution somewhat weaker than the 05/12z
ECMWF with this trough but align fairly well with its axis; both
the 00z GFS and 00z Canadian are out of phase with those means
across much of the north-central Pacific and are considered lower
probability alternative scenarios.

Roth