Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 11 2020 - 00Z Sun Oct 18 2020 Over the weekend, generally dry weather is expected as the southwestern edge of the subtropical high pushes into the state. However, by Monday/Tuesday there are indications that moisture should increase to modestly above normal as a surface trough moves across, remnants of former Marie. This combined with the potential for a weakness in the mid/upper-level flow over the state could lead to some locally heavier showers. GEFS ensemble members continue to favor this troughing coming southward earlier than other guidance. For the latter half of next week, this upper trough is forecast to push a cold front southeastward and approach the islands. Warm and humid weather can be expected over the state ahead of the front, along with winds shifting a bit more southerly than the normal easterlies, and a land/sea breeze pattern should set up. It remains to be seen if this front will make it into at least the northwestern islands by next weekend, or stall to the north. If the front does move that far south, heavier rain could be expected along the front as it focuses the moisture, with drier conditions behind it. But this remains uncertain for now. Tate