Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 12 2020 - 00Z Mon Oct 19 2020

A slight increase in moisture is expected for Hawaii for the early
part of the week as a surface trough moves across, remnants of
former Marie. This combined with the potential for a weakness in
the mid/upper-level flow over the state would lead to an increase
in instability, in turn creating the possibility for heavier
showers, especially where sea breezes may form. For the second
half of next week, a larger scale upper-level trough is forecast
to drop southward through the Pacific, pushing a cold front
southeastward and approaching the islands. Warm and humid weather
can be expected over the state ahead of the front, along with
light winds shifting more southerly than the normal easterlies,
allowing a land/sea breeze pattern to potentially set up. Pooling
of moisture ahead of the front could lead to locally heavy rain.
It remains to be seen if this front will make it into at least the
northwestern islands by the weekend, or stall to the north. If the
front does move that far south, heavier rain could be expected
along the front as it focuses the moisture, with drier conditions
behind it. But this remains uncertain for now and will continue to
be monitored.

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