Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 13 2020 - 00Z Tue Oct 20 2020

On Monday, increasing moisture and a surface trough moving across
the state due to the remnants of Marie, along with a weakness in
the mid/upper-level flow providing instability, could cause heavy
showers especially where sea breezes may form. A return of
moderate trade winds and average to below average moisture is
expected on Tuesday. Then for the latter half of the week, a
larger scale upper-level trough is forecast to drop southward
through the Pacific, pushing a cold front southeastward and
approaching the islands. Warm and humid weather can be expected
over the state ahead of the front, along with light winds shifting
more southerly than the normal easterlies, allowing a land/sea
breeze pattern to set up. Pooling of above normal moisture ahead
of the front could lead to locally heavy rain. Though still
uncertain at this time, model guidance continues to indicate this
front may reach at least as far south as the northwestern islands
by the weekend. If so, heavy rain can be expected along the front
as it focuses the moisture, with drier conditions behind it. This
potential for a frontal passage will continue to be monitored.

Tate