Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 14 2020 - 00Z Wed Oct 21 2020 On Tuesday, moderate trade winds are forecast, causing windward and mauka showers over the state. Then for the latter half of the week, an upper-level trough is forecast to drop southward through the Pacific, pushing a cold front southeastward and approaching the islands. Warm and humid weather can be expected over the state ahead of the front, along with a disruption of the trade winds. Winds are likely to be light and shift more southerly than normal easterlies, allowing for a land/sea breeze pattern. Pooling of above normal moisture ahead of the front could lead to locally heavy rain where the convergence boundaries set up. There is still uncertainty about how far south this cold front will push. But model guidance has been persistent in showing a frontal passage at least as far south as the western half of the state by the weekend. It appears GFS and some GEFS ensemble members have the front moving across more of the state than the EC suite of models. Where the front reaches, heavy rainfall could be a threat as it focuses higher than normal moisture values along it. The front may stall and dissipate over the islands early next week. Tate