Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 15 2020 - 00Z Thu Oct 22 2020

The main weather concern over the state for the upcoming week is
with an upper-level trough pushing a cold front southeastward and
approaching the islands by the weekend. South of the frontal
boundary, warm and humid weather can be expected, along with
weakening trade winds. Winds are likely to be light and shift more
southerly than normal easterlies, allowing for a land/sea breeze
pattern. Pooling of above normal moisture ahead of the front could
lead to locally heavy rain where those convergence boundaries set
up. Uncertainty remains with how far south the front will
progress. In general the GFS and some GEFS ensemble members
continue to have the front making it through at least the central
part of the state, while the ECMWF has the front stalling near the
western islands. More widespread heavy rainfall and the potential
for flooding are threats over the weekend at least over western
islands like Kauai, as the front focuses higher than normal
moisture values along it. If the front reaches farther east, those
areas could see heavy rainfall as well. It currently appears the
front should stall and dissipate west of the state around Tuesday.

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