Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 17 2020 - 00Z Sat Oct 24 2020

...Heavy Rainfall Threat for Hawaii...

Closed upper low/trough development and persistence to the
northwest of the state through early next week will work/stall a
lead front into the state. Disrupted trades/land-sea flow and deep
moisture pooling with precipitable water values upwards of 1.75-2"
centered into the west-central islands will be available to fuel a
multi-day period with a threat for locally heavy rains with
runoff/flooding potential statewide. Model and ensemble solutions
seem well clustered, bolstering forecast confidence. Expected
upper low/trough ejection and the gradual diminishing of the front
and moisture plume starting next midweek would gradually weaken
heavy rainfall support. In this transition, trades may gradually
return into later next week and offer some potential to bring
tropical moisture into the islands from the southeast. 

Schichtel