Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 20 2020 - 00Z Tue Oct 27 2020

A pesky upper low/trough to the northwest of the state and
trailing front has pulled a deep moisture plume into the western
islands. This is fueling a threat of some heavy rain over the next
couple of days in a pattern with disrupted trades. Guidance
solutions remain reasonably clustered, bolstering forecast
confidence in a composite solution. The upper low/trough and
front/moisture will gradually weaken into midweek. In this
transition, island trades would return later week into the weekend
to offer potential for tropical moisture influx into the state
from the Southeast in a pattern favoring windward terrain
rainfall. There is a growing guidance signal to then develop
another amplified upper trough/frontal system to the northwest of
the state that could again disrupt trades and renew moisture
pooling over the islands into early next week.

Schichtel