Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 22 2020 - 00Z Thu Oct 29 2020

A slow moving upper low/trough to the northwest of the state and
trailing front has nudged a deep moisture plume into the western
islands. This is fueling some heavy rains in a pattern with
disrupted trades. Guidance solutions remain reasonably clustered,
bolstering forecast confidence in a composite solution. The upper
low/trough and front/moisture will gradually weaken over the next
few days. Island trades may be slow to return later week into the
weekend, but some tropical moisture may work into the state from
the Southeast. There is a growing guidance signal to develop an
amplified upper trough/frontal system to the northwest of the
state that would keep trades disrupted and renew moisture pooling
over the islands early-mid next week.

Schichtel