Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 23 2020 - 00Z Fri Oct 30 2020

Prefer a composite of reasonably well clustered model and ensemble
guidance. A pesky upper trough lingers to the northwest of the
state as a moisture plume underneath fuels showers with some local
downpours into the west-central islands in a pattern with
disrupted trades. The upper low/trough and front/moisture will
continue to weaken into Friday. Island trades may be slow to
return later week into the weekend, but some tropical moisture may
work into the state from the Southeast. There is then a growing
guidance signal to develop quite an amplified upper trough/frontal
system to the northwest of the state that would keep trades
disrupted and renew deep moisture pooling for the islands next
week with slow approach into the islands in an increasingly wet
pattern.

Schichtel