Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 319 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Valid 00Z Thu Oct 29 2020 - 00Z Thu Nov 05 2020 An upper low to the north of Kauai/Oahu will carry a surface cold front through the island chain over the next few days. In the short term, locally heavy rain is possible as deep tropical moisture continues to flow across the region on southerly to southwesterly flow just off the surface. As the cold front moves southeastward, drier air will slowly spread across the area starting Thursday in the western islands and arriving in the Big Island around Saturday. Models were in good agreement overall though the GFS was just a bit quicker than the ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET to lift the trough to the northeast. Showery conditions will prevail for the rest of the week. For Sun-Wed, the flow will trend back to more typical trade wind direction (NE to ENE to E) as weak high pressure slips eastward just north of the 50th state. Models and ensembles show very good agreement on another trough to the northwest of the area by next Wed, with a cold font about 400-500 miles northwest of Kauai. Generally light showers are expected early in the week as precipitable water values vary between about 1.25-1.50 inches amid upper ridging. Fracasso