Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 30 2020 - 00Z Fri Nov 06 2020

An upper low to the north of Oahu will continue to carry a surface
cold front through the island chain over the next couple of days.
In the short term, locally modest to perhaps heavy rain is
possible moist air from the ITCZ (precipitable water values about
1.50-1.75 inches) over The Big Island slowly push off to the east.
As the cold front moves southeastward, drier air will slowly
spread across the area and arriving in the Big Island around
tomorrow evening. Models were in good agreement overall as the
trough lifts to the northeast. Showery conditions will prevail for
the rest of the week behind the front around the much larger
circulation to the north/northeast.

For Sun-Thu, the flow will trend back to more typical trade wind
direction (NE to ENE to E) as weak high pressure slips eastward
just north of the 50th state. Models and ensembles show very good
agreement on another trough to the northwest of the area by next
Wed, with possible upper low development by Thursday. A cold font
out ahead of the trough may still be to the northwest of the area
by next Thursday (perhaps a few hundred miles). Generally light
showers are expected early in the week as precipitable water
values vary between about 1.25-1.50 inches amid upper ridging,
though higher but brief moisture surges are possible per the
guidance.

Fracasso