Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 31 2020 - 00Z Sat Nov 07 2020

A current closed upper low to the north of Oahu is forcing a
surface cold front through the islands. Lingering showers and lead
moist ITCZ originated air now over the southern islands will push
off to the east Fri and onward Sat. Models were in good agreement
overall as the upper low lifts to the northeast. Showery
conditions may renew Sat-Mon as a moisture axis swings into the
state underneath a new amplifying upper trough to the
north/northeast of the state. Modest trades should return Mon-Wed
in the wake of this system in a pattern with mainly terrain based
showers. Later, models and ensembles remain the very good
agreement and develop an upper trough/closed low to the northwest
of the islands Thu/next Fri. A southward trailing cold front will
be slow to approach the western islands and lead moisture will
fuel widespread showers with some heavy downpours.

Schichtel