Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 13 2020 - 00Z Fri Nov 20 2020

The upper ridge that is currently north of the state should
gradually move to the southeast and a col develops within the
ridge axis.   Meanwhile, a weak upper trough tracks just south of
the Islands for the end of the week and into the weekend.  By next
Wednesday, the GEFS mean is slightly stronger with a deep trough
that develops northeast of the state and also brings a front
closer to the state than the EC mean.  A new surface high builds
in around 35N northwest of the state by the middle of next week.

In terms of sensible weather, the large high north of the state
through Saturday will tend to keep the Trades strong with breezy
to windy conditions, and then lessen by Sunday and Monday as the
col develops in the ridge and the pressure gradient weakens. 
Mainly terrain induced showers can be expected for much of the
forecast period, and although there may be some enhanced showers
next Wednesday, it appears that the heaviest rainfall should
remain south of the Big Island based on the latest model
projections.

Hamrick