Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 19 2020 - 00Z Thu Nov 26 2020

Today's guidance continues to agree well on the overall pattern. 
Trades will trend stronger between now and the weekend as one
surface high passes north of the state around Wednesday night and
a stronger high passes by during the weekend.  Expect the
strongest winds to be on Sunday.  Trades should gradually weaken
next Monday-Wednesday as the latter high weakens while tracking
into the eastern Pacific and a trailing front crosses the central
Pacific.  Over the past day the GFS has trended toward the
previous ECMWF majority cluster in showing rapid departure of an
area of enhanced deep moisture after Wednesday, corresponding to
the weakening/southward movement of a compact upper low initially
just southwest of Kauai.  After this moisture departs expect
precipitable water values to fluctuate for the rest of the period
depending on pockets of moisture carried along in the trades. 
There is a general signal among the models/means that PWATs may be
lowest late weekend into early next week.  Showers will favor
windward and mountain areas but may occasionally stray to other
locations.

Rausch