Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 20 2020 - 00Z Fri Nov 27 2020

Latest models and ensemble means maintain good agreement and
continuity for the pattern over the next seven days.  Trades will
trend stronger over the next few days with consensus still
targeting Sunday as the day of strongest winds as a fairly strong
surface high passes by to the north.  Then the winds should
gradually weaken at least to moderate levels as high pressure
settles over the eastern Pacific and a front crossing the Pacific
comes into the picture north of the state.  Showers will favor
windward/mountain areas with some rainfall occasionally straying
into other locations.  Guidance continues to show precipitable
water values fluctuating with the passage of various pockets of
moisture while the ensemble means suggest a lower trend toward
next Wednesday-Thursday.  The 00Z ECMWF also decreases moisture
over most of the main islands next Thursday.  From the weekend
into next week one or more weak upper impulses over or just north
of the state could enhance some of the shower activity at times.  
 

Rausch