Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Fri Jan 08 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 09 2021 - 00Z Sat Jan 16 2021

Weak trade winds should continue into the weekend, turning
northeasterly as an upper trough builds just east of the islands
and a weak cold front weakens over the region. Rising precipitable
water values associated with this boundary could enhance shower
activity over Hawaii this weekend. The upper troughing or low
should drift southward with time, settling near 10N into mid-week.
There are indications that moisture, partially in response to this
feature, may attempt to lift northward from the deep tropics just
southeast of the Big Island, but the consensus continues to favor
it staying offshore at this time. Meanwhile, another upper trough
should approach the region from the northwest, driving a cold
front towards the northernmost islands. This would likely bring
another disruption to the trade wind pattern. For now, a
model/ensemble consensus should suffice given large scale
agreement, with some differences in the details still needing to
be resolved.

Santorelli