Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 10 2021 - 00Z Sun Jan 17 2021

Weak trade winds should continue through Sunday as an upper trough
builds just east of the islands and a weak cold front weakens over
the region. The upper trough or low east of the state should drift
southward with time, settling near 10N by Monday. There are
indications that moisture, partially in response to this feature,
may attempt to lift northward from the deep tropics just southeast
of the Big Island, but the consensus continues to favor it staying
offshore at this time. Meanwhile, another shortwave should
approach the region from the northwest, driving a cold front
through the area during the middle of next week. A brief return of
normal trades should precede this front, but again diminish as the
front moves through. Mostly dry conditions should prevail through
much of next week, except for maybe a few showers associated with
the frontal passages. Models and ensembles show good agreement on
the large scale, though some differences in the details still need
to be resolved, so a general model compromise/consensus should
suffice for now.

Santorelli