Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 11 2021 - 00Z Mon Jan 18 2021

An upper low centered south of the state near 10N should weaken as
it drifts westward early this week, with moisture from the deep
tropics lifting northward over the Big Island, though models
continue to indicate the heaviest precipitation should stay
offshore. A shortwave should approach the region from the
northwest, driving a cold front through the area during the middle
of the week. Expect trade winds to weaken with the front passage,
again returning to normal by later in the week. The guidance shows
mostly dry conditions through much of the period, except for maybe
a few showers associated with the front as it moves through.
Models and ensembles show good agreement on the large scale,
though some differences in the details still need to be resolved,
so a general model compromise/consensus should suffice for now.

Santorelli