Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 210 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Valid 00Z Tue Jan 12 2021 - 00Z Tue Jan 19 2021 A shortwave north of Hawaii will drive a cold front through the region during the middle of this week. A disruption to the normal trade wind pattern can be expected, along with a slight uptick in showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Trades return following the frontal passage, but brief disruptions are possible into next weekend as a couple of fronts approach or move into the region. By the end of next weekend, there's fairly good agreement in the models showing a more defined/amplified shortwave driving a stronger cold front southward, reaching Kauai around Sunday-Monday. Both the operational GFS and ECMWF show enhanced, possibly moderate in intensity, precipitation with this front and even the GEFS/ECENS ensemble means have low to moderate probabilities for 0.5 to 1" of rain as the front moves through. Given the day 7 time frame, there remains plenty of uncertainty in the specifics, but the potential is there for some decent rains. Santorelli