Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 13 2021 - 00Z Wed Jan 20 2021

A couple of weak fronts moving into the region mid and late this
week will provide brief disruptions to the trades and increasing
showery activity. By the end of next weekend, there continues to
be good agreement that a more defined/amplified shortwave will
approach Hawaii, driving a strong cold front southward, which
reaches Kauai around Sunday-Monday. Both the operational GFS and
ECMWF continue to show enhanced, possibly moderate in intensity,
rainfall associated with this front, along with gusty winds. There
remains plenty of uncertainty in the details/timing of this
feature, but the potential is there and worth mentioning. Would
prefer an ensemble mean approach, given the day 6-7 time frame
which should help mitigate some of the differences.

Santorelli