Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 30 2021 - 00Z Sat Feb 06 2021

High pressure north of the state will maintain brisk to strong
trades into the weekend, supporting a windward/mountain focus for
showers. Most rainfall should be in the lighter half of the
spectrum as consensus shows precipitable water values moderately
below normal from late this week into the weekend. Moisture may
recover toward climatology by the start of next week. Early next
week winds should weaken and trend more southeasterly as high
pressure progresses eastward and a cold front approaches from the
west. Guidance agrees that this front will reach into the main
islands by midweek, accompanied by potentially moderate to heavy
rainfall and some thunderstorms. Precipitable water pooling along
the front may exceed 1.5". Guidance solutions are now slightly
better clustered for later next week as the front and enhanced
moisture/precipitation works through the islands. Differences
remain, but overall expect some lingering rainfall over eastern
parts of the state in closer proximity to the unsettling upper
trough.

Schichtel