Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 00Z Sun Mar 07 2021

Guidance continues to show brisk to windy trades through next week
due to a series of strong surface highs to the north of the state.
 The strongest winds are likely to be from this weekend through
Tuesday as a central Pacific high replaces a leading center over
the eastern Pacific.  This high will finally weaken after Tuesday
and the next high in the series should be a bit weaker, thus
allowing trades to be less strong but still on the brisk side. 
Showers will favor windward and mountain locations through next
week though rainfall could stray to leeward areas at times. 
Models and ensembles are consistent in showing the highest
rainfall potential being over the eastern islands this weekend
with the combination of enhanced deep moisture and an east-west
upper weakness that could have one or more embedded lows.  Most
solutions bring drier air into the region from the north after the
weekend with precipitable water values likely to remain near or
below climatology for most of the week.  Guidance hints at
moisture possibly starting to increase a bit by next Saturday. 
The decrease in moisture after the weekend will help to lower
rainfall totals but the upper troughing that persists over the
state (transitioning from an east-west orientation to more
northeast-southwest around midweek or so) could still promote
modest enhancement of shower activity.

Rausch