Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 01 2021 - 00Z Mon Mar 08 2021

Today's models and ensembles maintain good continuity with most
aspects of the forecast.  A series of strong surface highs to the
north of the area will maintain brisk to windy trades, with
highest wind speeds likely to be early this week when the
strength/proximity of high pressure are most favorable.  The
pattern will focus rainfall over windward and mountain areas but
some leeward locations may see occasional showers as well. 
Rainfall should trend lighter after this weekend with a north to
south push of lower precipitable water values.  With some
differences in specifics, guidance generally suggests that
moisture will rebound somewhat for the late week/weekend time
frame along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north,
possibly increasing rainfall totals.  Consensus still shows upper
troughing over the state through the period, with a transition
from an east-west axis for the first half of the week followed by
broader cyclonic flow.  The GFS/GEFS mean have slightly lower
heights aloft than most other solutions at some valid times.  This
upper troughing will likely provide varying degrees of enhancement
to shower activity during the week and next weekend.

Rausch