Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 AM EST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 04 2021 - 00Z Thu Mar 11 2021

The consensus of latest guidance displays good continuity for the
overall pattern evolution during the period.  Trades will be
fairly brisk through the period, though with some relative
weakening mid-late week as a high northwest of the state weakens
and a modest surface trough develops over portions of the state. 
An upstream high building in to the north and then northeast may
support a rebound in wind speeds from the weekend into next week. 
Expect windward/mountain focused showers to be on the lighter half
of the spectrum through Thursday with precipitable water values
below climatology.  Moisture will increase late week into the
weekend as a front and shortwave energy (GFS a bit deeper than
most other solutions) drop into the area, with the best guidance
signal for rainfall enhancement over the western islands.  Then
during the first half of next week guidance has been consistent in
showing greater moisture moving in gradually from the
south/southeast, and also consistent with the spread in how much
precipitable water values increase.  Thus by that time continue to
expect an increase in rainfall focus over the Big Island and
vicinity but with ongoing uncertainty for magnitude.  Upper
troughing over the area will gradually fill with time but enough
of a weakness may persist through midweek to provide some
enhancement to the rainfall. 

Rausch