Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 AM EST Sun Mar 07 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 08 2021 - 00Z Mon Mar 15 2021

Models and ensembles agree that a series of potent high pressure
cells will build and bridge to the north then northeast of the
islands to support moderate to brisk trades for much of the next
week. Moisture will increase over the next few days as trades tend
to veer southeastward with modest upper troughing over the state.
A preferred guidance composite favors a wetter period with heavy
rainfall potential for the Big Island enhanced over windward
terrain. There is also a guidance signal for amplified upper
trough digging to the north of the state into next weekend that
may also force an a precipitation focusing front to the state. The
00 UTC GFS has trended weaker with the forcing upper trough and
frontal progression, but that trend is not strongly supported by
the other models and GEFS/ECENS ensembles.

Schichtel