Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 11 2021 - 00Z Thu Mar 18 2021 ...Heavy rainfall pattern to persist over the islands... WFO Honolulu has Flash Flood watches and has had some significant warnings in effect for the state. Radar and satellite imagery confirms the active pattern as an upper level disturbance enhances deep moisture shown wrapping back across the islands into a well defined low now settled to the west of the state. Blended precipitable water loops show the well defined plume of tropical based moisture. Low persistence over the next few days will hold potential for additional periods of enhanced rainfall statewide. Meanwhile, prefer a solution closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET and ECMWF ensembles that still show a reasonably amplified upper trough digging to the north/northeast of the state that would force a rainfall focusing front into the state by the weekend. Amplified flow now over the mid-latitudes suggest that the GFS/GEFS/Canadian may be too progressive with the upper trough late week. These models have also been less run to run consistent. However, there is a trend in most guidance toward stalling the front and an uncertain wet focus over the state into next week versus older guidance that showed weekend frontal passage and a pronounced drying trend by early next week. Schichtel