Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 12 2021 - 00Z Fri Mar 19 2021

...Heavy rainfall pattern to persist this week over the islands...

WFO Honolulu has extended Flash Flood watches over the state into
late week. Radar and satellite imagery still confirms the active
pattern as an upper level disturbance enhances deep moisture shown
wrapping back across the islands into a well defined low settled
to the west of the state. Blended precipitable water loops show
the well defined plume of tropical based moisture. Low persistence
over the next few days will hold potential for additional periods
of enhanced rainfall statewide that would add to ongoing local
flooding/runoff issues.

Meanwhile, prefer a solution closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET and
ECMWF ensembles that show amplified upper trough digging to the
north/northeast of the state that would force a heavy rainfall
focusing front into the state this weekend. Amplified flow now
over the mid-latitudes suggest that the GFS/GEFS/Canadian may
still be too progressive with the aforementioned upper trough. In
this pattern, the front tends to stall over/near the state to
allow an uncertain wet focus linger over/near the state into next
week.

Schichtel