Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 20 2021 - 00Z Sat Mar 27 2021

Lingering upper troughing will hold over the region through the
weekend, in advance of an upper low digging towards the region
next week. As high pressure situates northeast of Hawaii this
weekend, this should maintain breezy northeast trades through
early next week. Limited moisture should confine showers to
windward regions. By next Tuesday though, the guidance continues
to show a digging upper low which may linger for a few days. This
pushes a front southward, possibly stalling across the
northernmost islands. ITCZ moisture should get pulled northward
ahead of the cold front, with may bring more appreciable rainfall
into the region by the middle of next week. The ensembles continue
to show very good agreement overall on the upper level features,
but significant spread on how much moisture and rainfall may be
realized over Hawaii. Given the time range, and uncertainties, a
consensus solution is probably the best at this point.

Santorelli