Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 21 2021 - 00Z Sun Mar 28 2021

Lingering upper troughing will hold over the region through the
weekend, in advance of an upper low digging towards the region
next week. As high pressure situates northeast of Hawaii this
weekend, breezy northeast trades should persist through early next
week with showers confined mainly to windward regions. By next
Tuesday though, the guidance continues to show a digging upper low
which may linger for a few days north of the state. This pushes a
front southward, possibly stalling across the northern/western
islands. ITCZ moisture should get pulled northward ahead of the
cold front, with may bring more appreciable rainfall into the
region by the middle of next week. The ensembles continue to show
very good agreement overall on the upper level features, but some
spread on how much moisture and rainfall may be realized over
Hawaii, especially for the western islands, which is dependent on
frontal location. Given the time range, and uncertainties, a
consensus solution is probably the best at this point.

Santorelli