Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sat Apr 03 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 04 2021 - 00Z Sun Apr 11 2021

Today's guidance continues to show the remains of a front helping
to focus an axis of moisture over the state during the weekend and
into Monday while mid-latitude high pressure builds southward to
help strengthen the trades.  Thus expect some enhancement of
rainfall in this time frame, with primary emphasis over
windward/mountain locations.  Models and ensembles agree that
drier air will settle over the area from later Monday into late
week (precipitable water values decreasing to at least 1-1.5
standard deviations below climatology) as northwesterly flow
prevails between a ridge to the west/northwest and an upper low
meanders well to the northeast.  By Friday-Saturday the consensus
of guidance shows the mean trough aloft southwest of the upper low
broadening as the ridge to the west slowly collapses while
shortwave energy that may drop into the area from the north could
promote a slight increase in moisture (but still a little below
climo).  Meanwhile trades should weaken gradually after early
Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes.  There is some spread
for where mid-latitude high pressure will be located late in the
period but the general trend for the gradient over the state is
agreeable.  Expect windward-focused showers to be fairly light for
most of next week given the low levels of moisture. 

Rausch