Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 00Z Mon May 10 2021 - 00Z Mon May 17 2021

Today's guidance continues the trend toward better agreement for
most forecast details.  Current model/ensemble mean consensus
shows precipitable water values slowly decreasing during the
period into moderately below normal territory.  This should tend
to keep showers in the lighter half of the spectrum.  From now
into midweek expect mostly light to moderate trades as separate
high pressure centers to the north and northeast of the state will
be sufficiently weak and distant.  Areas with lighter background
flow may see some land/sea breeze influence for shower activity
that will otherwise favor windward locales.  During mid-late week
guidance agrees that the southern periphery of an upper trough
will move over and then east of the area.  An upper low may form
within this trough by next weekend, with the 00Z CMC bringing its
low closer to the state than other guidance.  Meanwhile the trades
should strengthen after midweek as guidance maintains good
continuity with a tightening surface gradient to the south of
stronger surface high pressure.  The upper level feature and
stronger trades may lead to modest enhancement of rainfall whose
focus should become more windward-dominant.

Rausch